Dear Clients and Friends,
As we look ahead to the 2024 holidays, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, fueled by equal parts interest rate cuts, earnings growth, and meaningful growth in certain economic data like retail sales.
Market volatility, which usually picks up before presidential elections, has remained muted in the face of the relatively positive developments noted above. Valuations are by no means cheap, but earnings expectations looking into 2025 remain favorable.
While there are reasons for continued hope along the path of a soft landing, several key factors could influence volatility in the months ahead:
Sources of Optimism:
Economic Recovery: The potential for a global economic recovery, fueled by factors like infrastructure investments and technological advancements, could boost corporate earnings and market confidence.
Technological Innovation: Continued breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and biotechnology could drive growth and create new investment opportunities and capital spending.
Favorable Monetary Policy Environment: With the Fed satisfied with the pace of inflation reduction, interest rate decisions and fiscal stimulus could provide a positive backdrop for markets.
Potential Headwinds:
Presidential Election: This was a close election, and the outcome up and down the ballot has implications for federal spending, deficits and debt, as well as estate and tax policy over the coming 12-24 months.
Monetary Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, including trade disputes and regional conflicts, could create market volatility.
Inflationary Pressures: Should inflation rise again, fueled perhaps by wages, it could erode purchasing power and lead to higher interest rates, thereby impacting market valuations.
Supply Chain Disruptions: The risk of supply chain disruptions could affect production costs, corporate profits, and consumer spending.
Diversification across markets, geography, and sectors certainly matters, and we continue to find reasonable investment themes which we find attractive. Assuming we continue to witness economic growth, we think that, in a general sense, investments should follow – although not all boats will rise as much or as quickly.
As we welcome the Thanksgiving holiday later this month, we are certainly grateful for the many blessings we have received during the past year. We are especially grateful for all our wonderful clients, and we appreciate very much the opportunity to serve you. We wish you safe travels during this holiday season if you are traveling, and we hope that you are all able to take some time out of your busy lives and enjoy precious time with family.
Sincerely,
Eric Boyce, CFA
President & CEO
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