Charts & Chat - September 18, 2023
Eric Boyce • September 18, 2023
This week, Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. Various Business surveys suggest weaker economy, labor market ahead 2. Impact of student loan debt repayment, potential government shutdown, and UAW auto sector strike 3. outlook for retail sales 4. outlook for owner's equivalent rent (OER) on inflation 5. higher energy prices and demand expected, along with higher gasoline prices 6. home prices moving higher again; share of home sales from new builds increasing 7. expected future economic growth and equity returns next 10 years not as high as last 10 years.

By Eric Boyce
•
March 30, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. more data on the impact, duration and persistency of oil price shocks and their impacts on the investment markets and the economy 2. global geopolitical fragmentation increasing, coupled with declining share of fossil fuels as percent of total energy consumption 3. current forecast for first quarter 2026 economic growth is 2.0% 4. 33% of US government will mature this coming year ($10 trillion), which will need to be refinanced at higher rates; 20% of federal tax receipts go to interest on the federal debt 5. trade policy uncertainty declining, while economic policy uncertainty higher 6. seeing some inflationary pressure coming from producer prices in several Fed districts and in import prices 7. more soft sentiment data from consumers; however, retail and consumption data remain favorable amidst favorable financial conditions 8. stock sell off mitigated by strong earnings, increased liquidity 9. since 1949, average bull market lasts 5.3 years and returns 254%; meanwhile, average bear market lasts 1 year and declines 31% 10. private credit sell-off likely overdone, based on actual loss data



