Charts & Chat - June 9, 2024
Eric Boyce • June 9, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
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Gold performance relative to bonds and size of government budget; increase of gold in use as reserve asset
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Labor force participation and debt levels, and increased treasury issuance
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yield curve dynamics and lack of breadth evident in equities; equity risk premium very low relative to bonds
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diversification benefits from other asset classes, foreign markets
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residential home price declines, office vacancy and the looming debt cliff for commercial real estate
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job market in good shape but softening; consumer spending rising but so are delinquencies
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small banks responding to balance sheet issues
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disinflation tendencies in place - need patience

By Eric Boyce
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April 6, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. economic forecasts coming down for the first quarter of 2026, yet probability of recession remains around 30% 2. inflation perking up; manufacturing looking stable; retail sales remain strong 3. sentiment eroding for all income groups, as well as expectations 4. labor market is weak and tight at the same time; trend remains mixed and unidentifiable; software industry job losses pale in comparison to broader economy 5. brent crude prices spike; off circumstance where oil is in backwardation and natural gas is in contango; expect airfare inflation due to higher jet fuel costs 6. housing - affordability concerns persist, credit availability an issue; weak market for builders and existing home sales 7. overall credit metrics are improving, except for subprime borrowers; yields on software firms blowing out because of AI displacement fears. this is causing a major disconnect on prices for private credit and direct lending relative to their net asset values 8. equity earnings and margins continue to expand; however, tech P/E multiples coming in line with broader index 9. discussion of the things which make the S&P 500 a tough index from a benchmarking and diversification standpoint 10. There are 25% more exchange traded funds (ETFs) than listed equities on the US exchanges - implications for future markets




