Charts & Chat - June 9, 2024
Eric Boyce • June 9, 2024
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses:
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Gold performance relative to bonds and size of government budget; increase of gold in use as reserve asset
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Labor force participation and debt levels, and increased treasury issuance
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yield curve dynamics and lack of breadth evident in equities; equity risk premium very low relative to bonds
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diversification benefits from other asset classes, foreign markets
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residential home price declines, office vacancy and the looming debt cliff for commercial real estate
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job market in good shape but softening; consumer spending rising but so are delinquencies
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small banks responding to balance sheet issues
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disinflation tendencies in place - need patience

By Eric Boyce
•
May 4, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. earnings estimates and dividend growth rates for the equity indices continue to move higher, despite volatility and Iran conflict. Valuations relatively stable at higher levels 2. forward expected returns are lower for the conventional asset classes, introducing private and semi-liquid investments as a way to enhance risk-adjusted returns 3. energy has been the primary boost to inflation; however oil intensity has consistently gone down over time 4. drawdowns in stocks in gold, bonds and foreign stocks offset positive domestic equity performance during Iran conflict 5. first reading of 1st quarter GDP driven by consumption, inventories - offset by net trade and residential investment 6. disposable income positive yet decelerating, consumption positive resulting in lower savings rate. Positive trend in capital goods orders 7. positive PCE inflation has taken interest rate cuts off the table 8. residential housing permits in downtrend; meanwhile, house prices move higher at a lower rate 9. mixed commodity price basket - wheat, oil, industrial metals, cotton offset by natural gas 10. Last year, Venezuela received more revenue from financial remittances than from oil sales

By Eric Boyce
•
April 13, 2026
This week, CEO Eric Boyce, CFA discusses: 1. final 4Q GDP revision reflects weaker year-end environment. First quarter estimates are trending down, reflecting pressure from geopolitics 2. personal income trending lower, although credit outstanding remains flat 3. PCE prices are elevated, primarily from goods prices - housing continuing to drop 4. energy market impacts from Iran conflict - disproportionate impact on lower income, Asia energy markets 5. forward looking equity returns look to be more limited, following three years of above average returns - private investments will likely play a greater role going forward 6. still a considerable gap on individuals with retirement plans, even at the higher income levels 7. earnings estimates moving higher, especially for tech firms; accordingly, tech P/E multiples back down to overall index average





